The GOP is projected to keep the Senate but the House is a toss-up
the betting sites said it was at 80% chance for the house to win, and Trumps last two years have been shit, every podcaster that used to endorse him has either laid low or openly admitted they were wrong to support him. very few people are as open about their pro-trump love as they were in March of last year.
the enthusiasm gap is huge, Trump's doing so bad he had to hype up winning a state primary. the same fuckers saying the GOP will win the house will tell you Vivek will be governor, its all nonsense by retards
But even if the GOP does keep the House I'm sure it will be by a very slim margin where just like now, we'll still see nothing is getting done (probably more government shutdowns anyway).
people are acting like Trump will be able to pull off a 2022 esque midterms, but again the economy and job market was in massive recovery throughout all of 2022, gas was cheap as shit and the lockdowns had finished and we were in a weird era where everyone had jobs but the market didn't realize everyone was flush with cash and prices were low.
2026 is going to have some of the highest gas prices on record come election day and trump's picks will have Vivek level charisma. Trump himself isn't doing rallies or has the spark that he had a few years back, and he'll be even worse come election day. Texas GOP is having to spend hundreds of millions on a fucking primary because people hate the guy trump endorsed. people laugh at the dems for the virginia fuck up when the GOP is pissing away just as much money in Texas, there are already fears of the seat flipping and gerrymandering doesn't effect senate races where the GOP should be able to win but the numbers show way too much of a chance of a flip in numerous areas.
Beyond all of that, most of the people saying Trump will keep the house seem to not realize his approval rating is in the toilet and most people aren't approving of his international policies. Just because Trump is winning in your enclave doesn't make it so. the Iran war is a picture perfect example of this, to his supporters its odd why he has't won, but to anyone else its rather fucking obvious.
A great thing people pointed to as well is that the gerrymandering is all using data from 2024, when the podcast bros all went in hard for Trump and places like the city of Miami went full GOP, if the GOP gets the same votes in 2020 instead of 2024 then florida will end up having more Democrat congressmen than it has had in years. these miggers think that adding 20 seats will somehow stop a 40 seat wave.